Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportivo Garcilaso v Alianza Lima — Team-Based Signals
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Alianza Lima
PER
3-2
HT 2-0
Deportivo Garcilaso
PER
Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Alianza Lima — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Lima nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 33% / 33% — and on the day Alianza Lima made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.
On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 42% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 58%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.05 to 0.61 — the balance of chances actually favoured Deportivo Garcilaso.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 2.25 for Alianza Lima.
What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 34%, draw 33%, Alianza Lima 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) went the other way.