Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.69
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
49%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.6
Over 2.5
36%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
18%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
24%
-1.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
48%
Away Win
49%
-0.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 53%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +32%
1.55/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.59
+21% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +90%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
253 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 78%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
23.3 Crosses 19.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Alianza Lima
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.27 xG 1.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
224 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.05.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 3-2 HT 1-2 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
29.10.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
11.06.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 3-2 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1-2
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.76 xG 0.99
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
179 Passes 322
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 41% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 59%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.76 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 2.33 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?

Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 22%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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