Defensor Sporting 3-2 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.27
No
57%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+1.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.2pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 22%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
1.91/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.19
+25% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
311 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Cerro
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.09.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
26.02.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 5-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
15.11.2023 Cerro Cerro 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
08.04.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
04.12.2021 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Cerro URU2
18.02.2021 Cerro Cerro 0-0 HT 0-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
3-2
AWAY Cerro
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting edged past Cerro 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 52% of the ball to Cerro's 48%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Defensor Sporting and 0.67 for Cerro.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

Defensor Sporting 3-2 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 50%, draw 29%, Cerro 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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