Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.74
Over
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.86
2-3
38%
1.77
4-5
20%
4.08
6+
8%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.86 — our 34% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.05
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.0
X/1
18%
3.58
X/2
5%
10.8
X/X
11%
4.83
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
8%
9.35
2/X
6%
18.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
60%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.2pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +65% / +65%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +125% / +73%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.0
Crosses 8.0
Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Nacional
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.86 xG 1.28
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
263 Passes 298
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 41
26.04.2024 Nacional Nacional 2-2 HT 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
2-1
AWAY Nacional
0.74 xG 1.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
235 Passes 302
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Racing Club Montevideo vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Club Montevideo squeezed past Nacional 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Racing Club Montevideo as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Racing Club Montevideo had 46% of the ball to Nacional's 54%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.74 to 1.50 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nacional.

What was the final score of Racing Club Montevideo vs Nacional?

Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 Nacional in the Copa Sudamericana on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Club Montevideo vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Racing Club Montevideo 57%, draw 25%, Nacional 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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