Racing Club Montevideo vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Racing Club Montevideo v Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Racing Club Montevideo vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Racing Club Montevideo squeezed past Nacional 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Racing Club Montevideo as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Racing Club Montevideo had 46% of the ball to Nacional's 54%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.74 to 1.50 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nacional.
What was the final score of Racing Club Montevideo vs Nacional?
Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 Nacional in the Copa Sudamericana on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Racing Club Montevideo vs Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Racing Club Montevideo 57%, draw 25%, Nacional 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.