Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 Rayo Zuliano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
64%
1.11
Draw
23%
8.78
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.0
Over
50%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.29
No
64%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
24%
19.35
2-3
40%
3.61
4-5
22%
2.36
6+
14%
2.18
Value flag · 0-1 at 19.35 — our 24% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
50%
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
8%
34.5
X/1
11%
4.42
X/2
3%
34.5
X/X
11%
23.15
2/1
4%
28.5
2/2
6%
34.5
2/X
4%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Sportivo Ameliano win — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
85%
-20.9pp
23%
Draw
8%
+14.6pp
13%
Away Win
6%
+6.3pp
36%
BTTS Yes
40%
-3.3pp
64%
BTTS No
60%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Ameliano EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Zuliano EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -61%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
513 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
Crosses 11.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Rayo Zuliano
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.17 xG 0.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
304 Passes 354
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.04.2024 Rayo Zuliano Rayo Zuliano 0-4 HT 0-2 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Ameliano
1-0
AWAY Rayo Zuliano
0.50 xG 0.04
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 2
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
441 Passes 281
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 7
17 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sportivo Ameliano vs Rayo Zuliano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportivo Ameliano squeezed past Rayo Zuliano 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sportivo Ameliano as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Sportivo Ameliano had 59% of the ball to Rayo Zuliano's 41%, shots finished 9-2, expected goals 0.50 to 0.04.

What was the final score of Sportivo Ameliano vs Rayo Zuliano?

Sportivo Ameliano 1-0 Rayo Zuliano in the Copa Sudamericana on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Ameliano vs Rayo Zuliano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sportivo Ameliano win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Ameliano 64%, draw 23%, Rayo Zuliano 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sportivo Ameliano), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sportivo Ameliano) ✓ BTTS No
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