Belediye Kütahyaspor 2-1 Erbaaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 3rd Division Yükselme Playoff, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
34%
3.18
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.59
2-3 Goals
45%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.54
6+ Goals
7%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-3.7pp
34%
Draw
28%
+5.5pp
33%
Away Win
35%
-1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Belediye Kütahyaspor EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Erbaaspor EU Bookmakers 38%
+41% / +41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+105% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
300 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Belediye Kütahyaspor
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Erbaaspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
27.04.2024 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor S3-3
20.12.2023 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor 1-1 HT 1-1 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor S3-3
07.05.2022 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor 1-4 HT 0-2 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor S3-1
19.12.2021 Belediye Kütahyaspor Belediye Kütahyaspor 3-1 HT 1-1 Erbaaspor Erbaaspor S3-1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Belediye Kütahyaspor
2-1
AWAY Erbaaspor
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Belediye Kütahyaspor vs Erbaaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Belediye Kütahyaspor edged past Erbaaspor 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 34% / 33% — and on the day Belediye Kütahyaspor made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Belediye Kütahyaspor had 43% of the ball to Erbaaspor's 57%, shots finished 10-12.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Belediye Kütahyaspor had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Belediye Kütahyaspor and 1.00 for Erbaaspor.

What was the final score of Belediye Kütahyaspor vs Erbaaspor?

Belediye Kütahyaspor 2-1 Erbaaspor in the Turkey - 3rd Division Yükselme Playoff on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Belediye Kütahyaspor vs Erbaaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Belediye Kütahyaspor 33%, draw 34%, Erbaaspor 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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