Nacional de Football 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 15 Jun 2024

Nacional de Football
2-1 HT 1-0
Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
📅15/06/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Uruguay - Premier League – 2024

Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
2.0
Over 2.5
41%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.5pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.5pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
46%
+12.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
54%
-12.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.9pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional de Football v Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +26%
1.88/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.81
+16% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +56%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.7

Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
5 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
20.08.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
23.06.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-0 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
06.02.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 2-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
30.10.2022 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-4 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
14.08.2022 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU

Nacional de Football 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
2-1
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football squeezed past Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 44% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 56%, shots finished 7-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.00 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Nacional de Football 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 46%, draw 29%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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