Aalesund 2-2 Stabaek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 1st Division, 15 Jun 2025

Aalesund
2-2 HT 0-2
Stabaek
📅15/06/2025 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Norway - 1st Division – 2025

Aalesund vs Stabaek Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.4 — our 28% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.5pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aalesund v Stabaek — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalesund EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Stabaek EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.16/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/2.19
-28% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Aalesund vs Stabaek Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalesund
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Stabaek
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.93 xG 1.54
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
245 Passes 341
66% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.11.2024 Stabaek Stabaek 1-4 HT 0-2 Aalesund Aalesund NOR1
01.04.2024 Aalesund Aalesund 1-1 HT 0-0 Stabaek Stabaek NOR1
23.09.2023 Aalesund Aalesund 1-1 HT 1-1 Stabaek Stabaek NOR
13.05.2023 Stabaek Stabaek 1-0 HT 0-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
18.10.2020 Stabaek Stabaek 4-0 HT 1-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR
19.07.2020 Aalesund Aalesund 1-3 HT 1-1 Stabaek Stabaek NOR

Aalesund 2-2 Stabaek — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aalesund
2-2
AWAY Stabaek
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aalesund vs Stabaek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalesund and Stabaek couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Aalesund at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Aalesund had 50% of the ball to Stabaek's 50%, shots finished 12-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stabaek led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aalesund and 1.83 for Stabaek.

What was the final score of Aalesund vs Stabaek?

Aalesund 2-2 Stabaek in the Norway - 1st Division on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalesund vs Stabaek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aalesund win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Aalesund 43%, draw 28%, Stabaek 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Aalesund) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aalesund) ✓ Over 2.5
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