Haka 4-3 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 15 Jul 2024

Haka
4-3 HT 1-2
Ilves Tampere
📅15/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

Haka vs Ilves Tampere Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
42%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.33
Over 2.5
49%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
7%
7.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.88 — our 27% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.83
1/2
9%
20.5
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
8%
8.66
X/2
12%
4.36
X/X
13%
6.02
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.27
2/X
5%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+5.2pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.9pp
42%
Away Win
52%
-10.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.7pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Haka v Ilves Tampere — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haka EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 56%
+10% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.04/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.27
+33% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +97%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
236 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 79%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.0
15.9 Crosses 21.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Haka vs Ilves Tampere Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haka
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.65 xG 1.76
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
263 Passes 370
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.05.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 5-0 HT 2-0 Haka Haka FİN
16.02.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-2 HT 0-1 Haka Haka FLK
15.09.2023 Haka Haka 2-2 HT 2-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
04.08.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 0-1 Haka Haka FİN
07.06.2023 Haka Haka 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
04.02.2023 Haka Haka 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FLK

Haka 4-3 Ilves Tampere — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Haka
4-3
AWAY Ilves Tampere
2.87 xG 2.24
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
283 Passes 405
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Haka vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Haka nicked a narrow win over Ilves Tampere 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Ilves Tampere at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Haka had 43% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 57%, shots finished 16-17, expected goals 2.87 to 2.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Haka had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Haka and 1.83 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of Haka vs Ilves Tampere?

Haka 4-3 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 15/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haka vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Haka 30%, draw 28%, Ilves Tampere 42%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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