Burgos 1-0 Real Zaragoza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.26
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.42
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.82
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
13%
5.0
X/2
14%
5.5
X/X
15%
3.63
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.36
2/X
8%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.4pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.3pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+2.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.1pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Zaragoza EU Bookmakers 36%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.17/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.08
-6% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
18.3 Crosses 17.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burgos
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Real Zaragoza
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.59 xG 1.02
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
300 Passes 332
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 1-3 HT 1-1 Burgos Burgos İS2
30.10.2023 Burgos Burgos 1-1 HT 0-1 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
26.02.2023 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 0-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
27.11.2022 Burgos Burgos 2-2 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
24.04.2022 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 0-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
14.12.2021 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 2-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
1-0
AWAY Real Zaragoza
2.00 xG 0.41
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
245 Passes 250
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Burgos vs Real Zaragoza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos squeezed past Real Zaragoza 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Burgos found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Burgos had 48% of the ball to Real Zaragoza's 52%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.00 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Burgos's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burgos and 1.00 for Real Zaragoza.

What was the final score of Burgos vs Real Zaragoza?

Burgos 1-0 Real Zaragoza in the Spain - 2nd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs Real Zaragoza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Burgos 35%, draw 31%, Real Zaragoza 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burgos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Burgos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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