Real Zaragoza 1-3 Burgos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.14
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.85
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
12%
4.24
X/2
10%
7.38
X/X
13%
3.72
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
15%
6.23
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.2pp
28%
Draw
30%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-1.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.0pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Zaragoza EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Burgos EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -30%
1.35/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.23
-9% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 71%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
24.0 Crosses 17.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Zaragoza
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Burgos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.77 xG 0.65
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
324 Passes 303
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2023 Burgos Burgos 1-1 HT 0-1 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
26.02.2023 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 0-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
27.11.2022 Burgos Burgos 2-2 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
24.04.2022 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 0-0 HT 0-0 Burgos Burgos İS2
14.12.2021 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza 2-0 HT 1-0 Burgos Burgos İSPK
04.11.2021 Burgos Burgos 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Zaragoza Real Zaragoza İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Zaragoza
1-3
AWAY Burgos
1.93 xG 0.49
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
371 Passes 303
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Zaragoza vs Burgos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burgos got the better of Real Zaragoza 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Real Zaragoza at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Zaragoza had 55% of the ball to Burgos's 45%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 1.93 to 0.49 — the balance of chances actually favoured Real Zaragoza.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Zaragoza had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Real Zaragoza and 0.50 for Burgos.

What was the final score of Real Zaragoza vs Burgos?

Real Zaragoza 1-3 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Zaragoza vs Burgos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Zaragoza win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Real Zaragoza 41%, draw 28%, Burgos 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Zaragoza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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