BATE Borisov 1-0 Vitebsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.43
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
4.92
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.6pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.5pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BATE Borisov EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 36%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +23%
1.43/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.09
+18% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BATE Borisov
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Vitebsk
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.04.2024 Vitebsk Vitebsk 1-0 HT 1-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
16.09.2022 Vitebsk Vitebsk 1-1 HT 0-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
08.05.2022 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
28.11.2021 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov 4-0 HT 0-0 Vitebsk Vitebsk BLR
04.07.2021 Vitebsk Vitebsk 0-0 HT 0-0 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLR
07.04.2021 Vitebsk Vitebsk 2-3 HT 1-2 BATE Borisov BATE Borisov BLRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BATE Borisov
1-0
AWAY Vitebsk
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BATE Borisov vs Vitebsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BATE Borisov squeezed past Vitebsk 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; BATE Borisov found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, BATE Borisov had 51% of the ball to Vitebsk's 49%, shots finished 8-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, BATE Borisov had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for BATE Borisov and 0.83 for Vitebsk.

What was the final score of BATE Borisov vs Vitebsk?

BATE Borisov 1-0 Vitebsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BATE Borisov vs Vitebsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a BATE Borisov win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split BATE Borisov 40%, draw 25%, Vitebsk 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BATE Borisov), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (BATE Borisov) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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