Naftan Novopolotsk 3-6 Dinamo Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
52%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.88
No
47%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.54
6+ Goals
13%
13.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 24% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
18%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+5.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
52%
Away Win
58%
-6.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Brest EU Bookmakers 62%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -1%
0.67/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.91
-32% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
248 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Dinamo Brest
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.04.2024 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 2-2 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
16.09.2023 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 2-2 HT 1-1 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
30.04.2023 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-3 HT 0-1 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLR
10.07.2021 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 2-2 HT 2-0 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLRK
21.10.2017 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 0-4 HT 0-1 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest BLR
16.11.2015 Dinamo Brest Dinamo Brest 1-0 HT 1-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
3-6
AWAY Dinamo Brest
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Brest ran out comfortable winners over Naftan Novopolotsk 6-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Brest as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 6-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Naftan Novopolotsk had 45% of the ball to Dinamo Brest's 55%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Brest led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 2.33 for Dinamo Brest.

What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest?

Naftan Novopolotsk 3-6 Dinamo Brest in the Belarus - Premier League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dinamo Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 24%, draw 25%, Dinamo Brest 52%. The final score 3-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Brest), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Brest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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