Nacional Potosi 1-3 Aurora — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
51%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Potosi EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Aurora EU Bookmakers 28%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -9%
2.30/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.22
+35% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
27.5 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Potosi
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aurora
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.92 xG 1.53
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
297 Passes 239
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2024 Aurora Aurora 4-1 HT 3-0 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi BOLİ
03.03.2024 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi 1-0 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
22.07.2023 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi 0-0 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
20.02.2023 Aurora Aurora 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi BOLİ
10.09.2022 Aurora Aurora 1-5 HT 1-1 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi BOLİ
15.05.2022 Aurora Aurora 2-3 HT 2-2 Nacional Potosi Nacional Potosi BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Potosi
1-3
AWAY Aurora
1.06 xG 1.67
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
364 Passes 177
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional Potosi vs Aurora
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aurora saw off Nacional Potosi 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nacional Potosi at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nacional Potosi had 61% of the ball to Aurora's 39%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.06 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional Potosi had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nacional Potosi and 1.50 for Aurora.

What was the final score of Nacional Potosi vs Aurora?

Nacional Potosi 1-3 Aurora in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Potosi vs Aurora?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional Potosi win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Nacional Potosi 54%, draw 24%, Aurora 23%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional Potosi) ✗ Under 2.5
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