Cherno More Varna 1-1 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
36%
3.54
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.64
Over 2.5
33%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
23%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-12.3pp
36%
Draw
25%
+11.0pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.4pp
67%
Under 2.5
57%
+9.4pp
33%
Over 2.5
43%
-9.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.8pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 20%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.97/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.17/1.38
+17% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 1
07.11.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
15.07.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 3-3 HT 0-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
03.05.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 2-2 HT 0-1 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-1
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna and Arda Kardzhali shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Cherno More Varna at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (67%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 55% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 45%, shots finished 16-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cherno More Varna and 1.67 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Cherno More Varna 1-1 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 46%, draw 36%, Arda Kardzhali 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
15 Sep 2024
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