Parnu JK Vaprus 0-4 Nomme JK Kalju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
46%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+6.1pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-9.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju EU Bookmakers 60%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -16%
1.48/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.10
+37% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
239 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.07.2024 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 4-2 HT 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
30.03.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 1-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
07.10.2023 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-1 HT 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
19.08.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-3 HT 0-2 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
06.06.2023 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-0 HT 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
16.03.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-1 HT 0-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
0-4
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nomme JK Kalju ran out comfortable winners over Parnu JK Vaprus 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nomme JK Kalju as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 50% of the ball to Nomme JK Kalju's 50%, shots finished 9-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nomme JK Kalju led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 2.00 for Nomme JK Kalju.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju?

Parnu JK Vaprus 0-4 Nomme JK Kalju in the Estonia - Premium League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nomme JK Kalju win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 27%, draw 27%, Nomme JK Kalju 46%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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