Osijek 1-0 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 28% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-11.5pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.3pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 19%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.58/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.35
-4% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
26.1 Crosses 14.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.59 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
283 Passes 239
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
29.03.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
17.12.2023 Osijek Osijek 4-1 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
30.09.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
22.07.2023 Osijek Osijek 6-1 HT 3-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
21.04.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-1 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
11.02.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
1-0
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.90 xG 0.89
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
372 Passes 419
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek squeezed past Slaven Belupo 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Osijek as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Osijek had 47% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 53%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.90 to 0.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Osijek and 0.83 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Slaven Belupo?

Osijek 1-0 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osijek win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Osijek 52%, draw 27%, Slaven Belupo 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osijek), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Osijek) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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