Cerezo Osaka (K) 3-1 Nojima Stella (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
34%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
23%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
-9.4pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.3pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+7.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka (K) EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Nojima Stella (K) EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +104% / -52%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
284 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka (K)
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Nojima Stella (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 8
28.04.2024 Nojima Stella (K) Nojima Stella (K) 2-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka (K) Cerezo Osaka (K) JWEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka (K)
3-1
AWAY Nojima Stella (K)
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka (K) vs Nojima Stella (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka (K) beat Nojima Stella (K) 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka (K) had 53% of the ball to Nojima Stella (K)'s 47%, shots finished 9-11.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka (K) vs Nojima Stella (K)?

Cerezo Osaka (K) 3-1 Nojima Stella (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka (K) vs Nojima Stella (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka (K) 35%, draw 31%, Nojima Stella (K) 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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