Parceiro Nagano (K) 1-2 Albirex Niigata (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
37%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
24%
+13.8pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.2pp
37%
Away Win
47%
-9.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-2.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+2.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.4pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parceiro Nagano (K) EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata (K) EU Bookmakers 50%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.49/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.52
+60% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +118%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
277 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parceiro Nagano (K)
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Albirex Niigata (K)
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 2
21.04.2024 Albirex Niigata (K) Albirex Niigata (K) 4-1 HT 3-0 Parceiro Nagano (K) Parceiro Nagano (K) JWEL
26.11.2023 Parceiro Nagano (K) Parceiro Nagano (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata (K) Albirex Niigata (K) JWEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parceiro Nagano (K)
1-2
AWAY Albirex Niigata (K)
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 10
POST-MATCH Parceiro Nagano (K) vs Albirex Niigata (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata (K) edged past Parceiro Nagano (K) 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Albirex Niigata (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Parceiro Nagano (K) had 46% of the ball to Albirex Niigata (K)'s 54%, shots finished 7-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata (K) led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Parceiro Nagano (K) and 2.00 for Albirex Niigata (K).

What was the final score of Parceiro Nagano (K) vs Albirex Niigata (K)?

Parceiro Nagano (K) 1-2 Albirex Niigata (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parceiro Nagano (K) vs Albirex Niigata (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parceiro Nagano (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Parceiro Nagano (K) 38%, draw 25%, Albirex Niigata (K) 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Parceiro Nagano (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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