Albirex Niigata (K) 4-1 Parceiro Nagano (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.78
Over 2.5
33%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
1.99
No
66%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
10%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 67%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+1.4pp
67%
Under 2.5
52%
+14.3pp
33%
Over 2.5
48%
-14.3pp
34%
BTTS Yes
46%
-12.5pp
66%
BTTS No
54%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata (K) EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Parceiro Nagano (K) EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
300 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata (K)
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Parceiro Nagano (K)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
26.11.2023 Parceiro Nagano (K) Parceiro Nagano (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata (K) Albirex Niigata (K) JWEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata (K)
4-1
AWAY Parceiro Nagano (K)
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata (K) vs Parceiro Nagano (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata (K) cruised past Parceiro Nagano (K) 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Albirex Niigata (K) as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Albirex Niigata (K) had 47% of the ball to Parceiro Nagano (K)'s 53%, shots finished 16-15.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata (K) vs Parceiro Nagano (K)?

Albirex Niigata (K) 4-1 Parceiro Nagano (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata (K) vs Parceiro Nagano (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata (K) 55%, draw 26%, Parceiro Nagano (K) 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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