Mosta 1-0 Hamrun Spartans — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
6.35
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
56%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
2.1
Over 2.5
40%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
12%
+6.3pp
26%
Draw
18%
+8.1pp
56%
Away Win
70%
-14.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
44%
+16.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
56%
-16.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-8.6pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mosta EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamrun Spartans EU Bookmakers 75%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +17%
0.53/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.75/0.66
-13% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mosta
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.03.2024 Mosta Mosta 0-4 HT 0-3 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
05.11.2023 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 1-1 HT 1-1 Mosta Mosta MLTP
05.03.2023 Mosta Mosta 1-2 HT 0-2 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans MLTP
22.10.2022 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 2-1 HT 1-0 Mosta Mosta MLTP
17.01.2022 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 2-1 HT 1-1 Mosta Mosta MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mosta
1-0
AWAY Hamrun Spartans
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mosta vs Hamrun Spartans
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mosta edged past Hamrun Spartans 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hamrun Spartans at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Mosta had 39% of the ball to Hamrun Spartans's 61%, shots finished 5-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Hamrun Spartans led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Mosta and 2.20 for Hamrun Spartans.

What was the final score of Mosta vs Hamrun Spartans?

Mosta 1-0 Hamrun Spartans in the Malta - Premier League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mosta vs Hamrun Spartans?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamrun Spartans win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Mosta 19%, draw 26%, Hamrun Spartans 56%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamrun Spartans) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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