Surnadal 3-4 Lilleström II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 3rd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
42%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.94
Over 2.5
67%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.24
No
46%
3.59
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
44%
-8.2pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
42%
Away Win
34%
+7.5pp
33%
Under 2.5
22%
+11.8pp
67%
Over 2.5
78%
-11.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
76%
-22.2pp
46%
BTTS No
24%
+22.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Surnadal EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström II EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -39%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Surnadal
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lilleström II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Lilleström II Lilleström II 3-2 HT 1-2 Surnadal Surnadal NOR4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Surnadal
3-4
AWAY Lilleström II
56% Ball Possession 44%
28 Total Shots 18
10 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Surnadal vs Lilleström II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lilleström II nicked a narrow win over Surnadal 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lilleström II as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%) came in.

On the day, Surnadal had 56% of the ball to Lilleström II's 44%, shots finished 28-18.

What was the final score of Surnadal vs Lilleström II?

Surnadal 3-4 Lilleström II in the Norway - 3rd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Surnadal vs Lilleström II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lilleström II win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Surnadal 36%, draw 23%, Lilleström II 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lilleström II), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lilleström II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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