Libertad 2-1 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.48
Over 2.5
44%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.0pp
29%
Draw
31%
-2.2pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
64%
-7.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
36%
+7.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 39%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +15%
1.56/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.28
+31% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
219 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-3 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
12.02.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
07.11.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
27.08.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
03.06.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
03.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 5-0 HT 5-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-1
AWAY Cerro Porteno
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad nicked a narrow win over Cerro Porteno 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Libertad found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 57% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 43%, shots finished 13-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Libertad and 1.33 for Cerro Porteno.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Cerro Porteno?

Libertad 2-1 Cerro Porteno in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Libertad 40%, draw 29%, Cerro Porteno 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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