Libertad 1-3 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +10%
1.69/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.31
+49% / +69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
271 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.02.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
07.11.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
27.08.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
03.06.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
03.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 5-0 HT 5-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
01.11.2022 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-3
AWAY Cerro Porteno
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno saw off Libertad 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Cerro Porteno found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Libertad had 60% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 40%, shots finished 7-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Libertad and 0.83 for Cerro Porteno.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Cerro Porteno?

Libertad 1-3 Cerro Porteno in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Libertad 35%, draw 31%, Cerro Porteno 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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