Nacional Asuncion 0-1 Sportivo Luqueno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-3.5pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno EU Bookmakers 40%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
0.89/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.17
-24% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.02.2024 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
02.12.2023 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 1-1 HT 1-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
16.09.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-1 HT 0-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
23.05.2023 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 0-1 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
19.03.2023 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 0-1 HT 0-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
17.10.2021 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 0-0 HT 0-0 Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
0-1
AWAY Sportivo Luqueno
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportivo Luqueno nicked a narrow win over Nacional Asuncion 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Sportivo Luqueno found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 37% of the ball to Sportivo Luqueno's 63%, shots finished 7-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.83 for Sportivo Luqueno.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Nacional Asuncion 0-1 Sportivo Luqueno in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sportivo Luqueno win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 32%, draw 29%, Sportivo Luqueno 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sportivo Luqueno), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sportivo Luqueno) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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