OFK Beograd 3-2 FK Partizan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
50%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
20%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+2.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
50%
Away Win
50%
+0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME OFK Beograd EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Partizan EU Bookmakers 54%
-43% / -43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.03/2.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.96
+68% / -61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
240 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 83%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 43.0
23.5 Crosses 21.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME OFK Beograd
3-2
AWAY FK Partizan
1.65 xG 2.34
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 6
407 Passes 308
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH OFK Beograd vs FK Partizan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

OFK Beograd squeezed past FK Partizan 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was FK Partizan at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, OFK Beograd had 55% of the ball to FK Partizan's 45%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.65 to 2.34 — on chances, FK Partizan could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of OFK Beograd vs FK Partizan?

OFK Beograd 3-2 FK Partizan in the Serbia - Super League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for OFK Beograd vs FK Partizan?

Before kick-off our model rated an FK Partizan win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split OFK Beograd 27%, draw 23%, FK Partizan 50%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FK Partizan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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