UCV 3-1 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 15 Sep 2024

UCV
3-1 HT 1-0
Estudiantes De Merida
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒00:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Venezuela - Premier League – 2024

UCV vs Estudiantes De Merida Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.7pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

UCV v Estudiantes De Merida — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCV EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.35/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.60
-5% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
260 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
23.8 Crosses 17.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.8

UCV vs Estudiantes De Merida Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCV
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
1.16 xG 1.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
244 Passes 231
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.03.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-1 HT 0-0 UCV UCV VEN
23.07.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-0 HT 1-0 UCV UCV VEN
22.04.2023 UCV UCV 3-2 HT 2-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
11.06.2022 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 3-0 HT 0-0 UCV UCV VEN
05.06.2022 UCV UCV 1-2 HT 0-1 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN

UCV 3-1 Estudiantes De Merida — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCV
3-1
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.70 xG 0.70
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 9
148 Passes 352
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH UCV vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCV saw off Estudiantes De Merida 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had UCV as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, UCV had 34% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 66%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.70 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Estudiantes De Merida led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UCV and 1.80 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of UCV vs Estudiantes De Merida?

UCV 3-1 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCV vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCV win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split UCV 43%, draw 26%, Estudiantes De Merida 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UCV), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UCV) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
VEN More Venezuela - Premier League
15 Sep 2024
00:45 Hermanos Colmenarez vs Rayo Zuliano Analysis →
03:30 Angostura FC vs Caracas FC Analysis →