Al Sharjah 4-3 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 15 Sep 2025

📅15/09/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 30% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.81
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.15
X/1
15%
4.98
X/2
13%
7.22
X/X
13%
4.76
2/1
7%
23.65
2/2
9%
5.03
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
45%
+3.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.8pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Sharjah EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-43% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.3 Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Sharjah
4-3
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.47 xG 2.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
325 Passes 284
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Sharjah vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Sharjah nicked a narrow win over Al Gharafa 4-3. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Sharjah as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Al Sharjah had 52% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 48%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 1.47 to 2.14 — on chances, Al Gharafa could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Al Sharjah vs Al Gharafa?

Al Sharjah 4-3 Al Gharafa in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 15/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Sharjah vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Sharjah win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Al Sharjah 48%, draw 24%, Al Gharafa 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Sharjah) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Sharjah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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