Brusque 1-0 Ituano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
33%
2.94
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
1.48
Over
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2.2
2-3
38%
1.8
4-5
16%
5.63
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-2.9pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.1pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.8pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brusque EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ituano EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.27/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.34
-22% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
25.7 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brusque
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Ituano
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.70 xG 1.30
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
402 Passes 226
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
23.06.2024 Ituano Ituano 1-1 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
24.09.2022 Ituano Ituano 2-0 HT 1-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
11.06.2022 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-1 Ituano Ituano BR2
30.10.2020 Ituano Ituano 3-1 HT 2-1 Brusque Brusque BRE3
30.08.2020 Brusque Brusque 2-0 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BRE3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brusque
1-0
AWAY Ituano
1.85 xG 0.94
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
215 Passes 297
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Brusque vs Ituano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brusque edged past Ituano 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 32% / 27%) promised a tight game; Brusque found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brusque had 47% of the ball to Ituano's 53%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.85 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ituano led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Brusque and 1.40 for Ituano.

What was the final score of Brusque vs Ituano?

Brusque 1-0 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brusque vs Ituano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brusque win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Brusque 40%, draw 32%, Ituano 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brusque), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brusque) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
15 Oct 2024
03:00 Guarani FC vs CRB Analysis →