Guarani FC 2-1 CRB — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
1.36
Over
34%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.44
No
63%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1
41%
1.92
2-3
37%
1.87
4-5
15%
7.08
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.7pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
70%
-4.0pp
34%
Over 2.5
30%
+4.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
37%
-0.2pp
63%
BTTS No
63%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY CRB EU Bookmakers 26%
+7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.27/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.24
+2% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
21.2 Crosses 15.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guarani FC
1W-2D-3L
AWAY CRB
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 0.96
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
360 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.06.2024 CRB CRB 1-0 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
23.09.2023 CRB CRB 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
04.06.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-1 CRB CRB BR2
12.10.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-0 HT 0-0 CRB CRB BR2
03.07.2022 CRB CRB 1-1 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
16.10.2021 CRB CRB 2-2 HT 0-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guarani FC
2-1
AWAY CRB
0.57 xG 0.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
205 Passes 309
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Box Touches 6
13 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guarani FC vs CRB
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guarani FC squeezed past CRB 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Guarani FC as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guarani FC had 43% of the ball to CRB's 57%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.57 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CRB led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Guarani FC and 1.00 for CRB.

What was the final score of Guarani FC vs CRB?

Guarani FC 2-1 CRB in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guarani FC vs CRB?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guarani FC win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Guarani FC 43%, draw 31%, CRB 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guarani FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guarani FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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