St. Lucia 0-4 Sint Maarten — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
18%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.92
6+ Goals
16%
8.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
59%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.6pp
18%
Away Win
20%
-1.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.0pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Lucia EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sint Maarten EU Bookmakers 23%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+30% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Lucia
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Sint Maarten
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.06 xG 1.21
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
296 Passes 248
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.10.2024 Sint Maarten Sint Maarten 1-2 HT 1-0 St. Lucia St. Lucia CON
19.11.2023 St. Lucia St. Lucia 1-2 HT 1-1 Sint Maarten Sint Maarten CON
08.09.2023 Sint Maarten Sint Maarten 1-5 HT 0-1 St. Lucia St. Lucia CON
POST-MATCH St. Lucia vs Sint Maarten
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sint Maarten swept aside St. Lucia 4-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had St. Lucia at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, over 2.5 goals (58%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, St. Lucia had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for St. Lucia and 1.33 for Sint Maarten.

What was the final score of St. Lucia vs Sint Maarten?

St. Lucia 0-4 Sint Maarten in the CONCACAF Champions League on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Lucia vs Sint Maarten?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Lucia win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split St. Lucia 56%, draw 26%, Sint Maarten 18%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (St. Lucia), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Lucia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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