Sint Maarten 1-2 St. Lucia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 12 Oct 2024

📅12/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.71
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
41%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.7
No
44%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
9%
8.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
18%
+14.9pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
41%
Away Win
61%
-19.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
55%
+1.3pp
44%
BTTS No
45%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sint Maarten EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Lucia EU Bookmakers 66%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.52/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
+58% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -15%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.2 Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sint Maarten
1W-0D-1L
AWAY St. Lucia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.14 xG 2.64
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
302 Passes 266
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 23
0 Yellow Cards 0
19.11.2023 St. Lucia St. Lucia 1-2 HT 1-1 Sint Maarten Sint Maarten CON
08.09.2023 Sint Maarten Sint Maarten 1-5 HT 0-1 St. Lucia St. Lucia CON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sint Maarten
1-2
AWAY St. Lucia
1.37 xG 0.89
43% Ball Possession 57%
6 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
138 Passes 354
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sint Maarten vs St. Lucia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Lucia nicked a narrow win over Sint Maarten 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Lucia as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sint Maarten had 43% of the ball to St. Lucia's 57%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 1.37 to 0.89 — on chances, Sint Maarten could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sint Maarten and 3.00 for St. Lucia.

What was the final score of Sint Maarten vs St. Lucia?

Sint Maarten 1-2 St. Lucia in the CONCACAF Champions League on 12/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sint Maarten vs St. Lucia?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Lucia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sint Maarten 33%, draw 26%, St. Lucia 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Lucia), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Lucia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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