Caernarfon Town 1-4 Aberystwyth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 15 Oct 2024

Caernarfon Town
1-4 HT 0-3
Aberystwyth Town
📅15/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

Caernarfon Town vs Aberystwyth Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.29
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.61
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.83
2-3 Goals
40%
2.05
4-5 Goals
25%
2.6
6+ Goals
14%
5.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
73%
-10.2pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.2pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.0pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caernarfon Town v Aberystwyth Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberystwyth Town EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
2.56/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.58
-4% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
492 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Caernarfon Town vs Aberystwyth Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Aberystwyth Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.10.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-0 HT 0-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
09.09.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 2-4 HT 2-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
22.04.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 3-2 HT 1-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
17.03.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
21.01.2023 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
21.10.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Aberystwyth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberystwyth Town ran out comfortable winners over Caernarfon Town 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Caernarfon Town carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.50 for Aberystwyth Town.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Caernarfon Town 1-4 Aberystwyth Town in the Wales - Premier League on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caernarfon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 63%, draw 20%, Aberystwyth Town 17%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Caernarfon Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caernarfon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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