Chelsea 2-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 15 Dec 2024

Chelsea
2-1 HT 1-0
Brentford
📅15/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Chelsea vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.8
2-3 Goals
40%
2.15
4-5 Goals
28%
2.4
6+ Goals
14%
4.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.59
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.5
X/1
21%
3.85
X/2
6%
16.45
X/X
10%
8.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.8
2/2
9%
10.8
2/X
6%
19.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.8 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
69%
-11.9pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.2pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.7pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 17%
-9% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
2.14/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.83
-14% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -4%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
497 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
20.5 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Chelsea vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Brentford
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.53 xG 1.57
69% Ball Possession 31%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
600 Passes 217
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
33 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Brentford Brentford 2-2 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
28.10.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-2 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
26.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-2 HT 0-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
19.10.2022 Brentford Brentford 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
02.04.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 1-4 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
22.12.2021 Brentford Brentford 0-2 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNLK

Chelsea 2-1 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
2-1
AWAY Brentford
2.23 xG 1.63
62% Ball Possession 38%
26 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
443 Passes 250
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
51 Box Touches 17
34 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea edged past Brentford 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 62% of the ball to Brentford's 38%, shots finished 26-9, expected goals 2.23 to 1.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brentford led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chelsea and 1.67 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Brentford?

Chelsea 2-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 57%, draw 22%, Brentford 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
15 Dec 2024
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