Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Manchester City v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals
Manchester City vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Manchester City
İNP
2-1
HT 1-1
Manchester United
FAK
2-1
HT 0-0
Manchester City
İNP
Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics
Manchester United squeezed past Manchester City 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Manchester City at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Manchester City had 52% of the ball to Manchester United's 48%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.95 to 2.08.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Manchester City and 1.17 for Manchester United.
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Manchester United?
Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Manchester United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 57%, draw 23%, Manchester United 20%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Manchester City), BTTS No went the other way.