Numancia 3-1 Real Valladolid II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
26%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.71
Over 2.5
50%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
62%
-13.5pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
26%
Away Win
15%
+10.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
55%
-4.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
45%
+4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Numancia EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Valladolid II EU Bookmakers 18%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +18%
1.65/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.71
-1% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +95% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Numancia
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Real Valladolid II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
54% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
21.02.2021 Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II 1-1 HT 1-0 Numancia Numancia İS3
28.11.2020 Numancia Numancia 2-2 HT 1-1 Real Valladolid II Real Valladolid II İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Numancia
3-1
AWAY Real Valladolid II
51% Ball Possession 49%
21 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Numancia vs Real Valladolid II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Numancia beat Real Valladolid II 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Numancia as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Numancia had 51% of the ball to Real Valladolid II's 49%, shots finished 21-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Numancia and 1.50 for Real Valladolid II.

What was the final score of Numancia vs Real Valladolid II?

Numancia 3-1 Real Valladolid II in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Numancia vs Real Valladolid II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Numancia win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Numancia 48%, draw 26%, Real Valladolid II 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Numancia) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Numancia)
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