Köln 3-1 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 15 Dec 2024

Köln
3-1 HT 3-0
Nürnberg
📅15/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Köln vs Nürnberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.59
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.53
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.55
6+ Goals
16%
5.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.9
X/1
17%
4.22
X/2
11%
10.95
X/X
7%
6.78
2/1
7%
19.7
2/2
10%
7.21
2/X
7%
15.2
Value flag · 1/X at 14.9 — our 11% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.7pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.3pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Nürnberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 23%
-11% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +17%
2.39/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.64
+17% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
389 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
35.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
25.5 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Köln vs Nürnberg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
The Meetings
18.02.2012 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-1 HT 1-0 Köln Köln AL1
11.09.2011 Köln Köln 1-2 HT 1-2 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL1
03.04.2011 Köln Köln 1-0 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL1
06.11.2010 Nürnberg Nürnberg 3-1 HT 2-1 Köln Köln AL1
08.05.2010 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
20.12.2009 Köln Köln 3-0 HT 1-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL1

Köln 3-1 Nürnberg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
3-1
AWAY Nürnberg
2.15 xG 0.75
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
326 Passes 416
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Köln vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Köln saw off Nürnberg 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Köln as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Köln had 45% of the ball to Nürnberg's 55%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 2.15 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nürnberg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Köln and 1.33 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Köln vs Nürnberg?

Köln 3-1 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Köln 49%, draw 24%, Nürnberg 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Köln), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Köln) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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