Melbourne City (K) 4-2 Canberra United (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 15 Dec 2024

Melbourne City (K)
4-2 HT 0-1
Canberra United (K)
📅15/12/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne City (K) vs Canberra United (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
Over 2.5
62%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
68%
-5.1pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.2pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne City (K) v Canberra United (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City (K) EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Canberra United (K) EU Bookmakers 17%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.13/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.94
+10% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
333 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 76%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
11.9 Crosses 17.3
0.2 Yellow Cards 1.5

Melbourne City (K) vs Canberra United (K) Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City (K)
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Canberra United (K)
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
2.22 xG 1.18
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
397 Passes 230
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.02.2024 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) 3-1 HT 2-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
24.11.2019 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) 1-2 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
22.12.2018 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 3-0 HT 3-0 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) AVUSTW
28.10.2018 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) 2-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) AVUSTW
10.12.2017 Melbourne City (K) Melbourne City (K) 2-1 HT 1-1 Canberra United (K) Canberra United (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne City (K) 4-2 Canberra United (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City (K)
4-2
AWAY Canberra United (K)
2.57 xG 1.46
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
354 Passes 161
78% Pass Accuracy 64%
17 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Melbourne City (K) vs Canberra United (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City (K) saw off Canberra United (K) 4-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne City (K) as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Melbourne City (K) had 64% of the ball to Canberra United (K)'s 36%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.57 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Melbourne City (K) had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Melbourne City (K) and 1.40 for Canberra United (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne City (K) vs Canberra United (K)?

Melbourne City (K) 4-2 Canberra United (K) in the Australia - W-League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City (K) vs Canberra United (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City (K) 63%, draw 19%, Canberra United (K) 18%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City (K)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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