Marsaxlokk FC 1-1 Naxxar Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.47
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.06
No
61%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
64%
-9.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.9pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.5pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsaxlokk FC EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 17%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
2.43/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.23
+69% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsaxlokk FC
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Naxxar Lions
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-0 HT 0-0 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC MLTP
28.01.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-0 HT 0-0 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC MLTP
15.09.2023 Marsaxlokk FC Marsaxlokk FC 5-1 HT 2-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsaxlokk FC
1-1
AWAY Naxxar Lions
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Marsaxlokk FC vs Naxxar Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsaxlokk FC and Naxxar Lions shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Marsaxlokk FC at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Marsaxlokk FC had 60% of the ball to Naxxar Lions's 40%, shots finished 8-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Marsaxlokk FC had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marsaxlokk FC and 0.33 for Naxxar Lions.

What was the final score of Marsaxlokk FC vs Naxxar Lions?

Marsaxlokk FC 1-1 Naxxar Lions in the Malta - Premier League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsaxlokk FC vs Naxxar Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsaxlokk FC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Marsaxlokk FC 54%, draw 26%, Naxxar Lions 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Marsaxlokk FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsaxlokk FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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