Tondela 2-0 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 31% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.0pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.57/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/0.54
-10% / +97% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -42%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.9 Crosses 23.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Portimonense
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.66 xG 1.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
332 Passes 288
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.01.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
22.08.2021 Tondela Tondela 0-3 HT 0-2 Portimonense Portimonense POR
06.03.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 3-0 HT 2-0 Tondela Tondela POR
23.10.2020 Tondela Tondela 1-0 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
01.02.2020 Portimonense Portimonense 0-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR
19.08.2019 Tondela Tondela 1-2 HT 0-2 Portimonense Portimonense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
2-0
AWAY Portimonense
1.23 xG 1.01
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
244 Passes 277
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela beat Portimonense 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Tondela had 47% of the ball to Portimonense's 53%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.23 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tondela and 1.50 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Portimonense?

Tondela 2-0 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tondela 48%, draw 28%, Portimonense 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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