AVS 1-1 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Dec 2024

AVS
1-1 HT 0-1
Benfica
📅15/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
9.57
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
65%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.79
6+ Goals
9%
7.89
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.44 — our 26% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
20.35
1/2
5%
25.0
1/X
5%
28.0
X/1
4%
24.7
X/2
20%
3.35
X/X
12%
8.51
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
40%
1.42
2/X
5%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
8%
+6.8pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.0pp
65%
Away Win
77%
-11.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.3pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 81%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
0.61/2.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.06/0.81
-59% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +12%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
242 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 84%
9.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.8
10.0 Crosses 20.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Benfica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.71 xG 1.64
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
289 Passes 372
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 1
21.12.2023 Benfica Benfica 4-1 HT 2-1 AVS AVS PRLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
1-1
AWAY Benfica
1.06 xG 0.79
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 3
314 Passes 489
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 23
9 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AVS vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AVS and Benfica shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Benfica carried 65% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AVS had 41% of the ball to Benfica's 59%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.06 to 0.79.

What was the final score of AVS vs Benfica?

AVS 1-1 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split AVS 14%, draw 21%, Benfica 65%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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