Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Santa Clara — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Santa Clara Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Santa Clara
POR
1-2
HT 0-1
Arouca
PORLC
1-2
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
1-1
HT 0-0
Santa Clara
POR
2-1
HT 2-1
Arouca
POR
Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca edged past Santa Clara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (33% / 32% / 35%) promised a tight game; Arouca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Arouca had 51% of the ball to Santa Clara's 49%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 0.78 to 0.30.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Santa Clara.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Arouca 33%, draw 32%, Santa Clara 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Santa Clara) went the other way.