Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.52
Over 2.5
44%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.25
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
5.08
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.18
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
7%
14.8
X/1
8%
6.31
X/2
16%
4.62
X/X
18%
3.71
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
12%
3.35
2/X
7%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.8pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.2pp
35%
Away Win
41%
-6.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-5.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 45%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.10/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.35
+2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -14%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
14.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
15.8 Crosses 19.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 4.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Santa Clara
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.24 xG 1.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
320 Passes 274
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
11.02.2023 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 0-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
16.12.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-2 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca PORLC
20.08.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
15.04.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-1 HT 0-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
05.12.2021 Santa Clara Santa Clara 2-1 HT 2-1 Arouca Arouca POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-0
AWAY Santa Clara
0.78 xG 0.30
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
301 Passes 285
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Santa Clara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca edged past Santa Clara 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 32% / 35%) promised a tight game; Arouca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arouca had 51% of the ball to Santa Clara's 49%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 0.78 to 0.30.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Santa Clara.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Santa Clara?

Arouca 1-0 Santa Clara in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Santa Clara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Arouca 33%, draw 32%, Santa Clara 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Santa Clara) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Santa Clara) ✓ Under 2.5
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