Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Athletic Bilbao v Osasuna — Team-Based Signals
Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-2
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
2-0
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
İS1
1-1
HT 1-0
Osasuna
İSPK
1-0
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
İSPK
Athletic Bilbao 2-3 Osasuna — Actual Match Statistics
Osasuna squeezed past Athletic Bilbao 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Athletic Bilbao at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 60% of the ball to Osasuna's 40%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.60 to 1.94.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.17 for Osasuna.
What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna?
Athletic Bilbao 2-3 Osasuna in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 16/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Osasuna?
Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 47%, draw 25%, Osasuna 28%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.