Monaco 1-3 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 16 Jan 2026

Monaco
1 - 3 HT 0 - 0
Lorient
📅16/01/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Monaco vs Lorient Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
18%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
40%
2.23
Over
60%
1.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
19%
4.41
2-3
45%
1.89
4-5
28%
2.86
6+
8%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
2.09
1/2
1%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.15
X/1
19%
4.41
X/2
7%
10.2
X/X
13%
6.07
2/1 ✗
4%
20.7
2/2
10%
7.54
2/X
4%
15.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.7 — our 4% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Monaco v Lorient — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Monaco The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient The Market 24%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Weak
1.97 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.97
0.97 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.85
Strong Attack Strength Weak
Average Defense Strength Weak
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
436 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
28 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Monaco vs Lorient Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Lorient
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.72 xG 1.03
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
436 Passes 343
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
35 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.09.2025 Lorient Lorient 3-1 HT 1-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
17.03.2024 Monaco Monaco 2-2 HT 1-1 Lorient Lorient FR1
17.09.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-2 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
16.04.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-1 HT 2-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
11.01.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-2 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
13.02.2022 Monaco Monaco 0-0 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1

Monaco 1-3 Lorient — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
1 - 3
AWAY Lorient
1.25 xG 1.38
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
527 Passes 320
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
31 Box Touches 17
34 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Monaco vs Lorient
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Lorient had too much for Monaco 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our model won't enjoy this one — Monaco at 60% was the clear read, and the result ignored it. Over a season these leads pay; on a single Tuesday, anything can happen. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

By the numbers, Monaco had 61% of the ball to Lorient's 39%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.25 to 1.38.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monaco and 1.67 for Lorient.

Monaco vs Lorient Result & Final Score

Monaco 1 - 3 Lorient in the France - Ligue 1 on 16/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Monaco vs Lorient Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Monaco 60%, draw 22%, Lorient 18%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monaco) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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