Derry City 2-1 Drogheda United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 16 Feb 2024

📅16/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.34
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.1
Over 2.5
58%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.95
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
10.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.08 — our 29% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.59
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
7%
21.15
X/1
15%
3.35
X/2
6%
16.25
X/X
9%
6.82
2/1
8%
22.45
2/2
6%
13.25
2/X
8%
21.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
70%
-10.2pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.3pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+4.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Drogheda United EU Bookmakers 15%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +16%
1.32/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.57
-15% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
449 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 71%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
22.8 Crosses 12.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Drogheda United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.30 xG 0.68
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
438 Passes 179
79% Pass Accuracy 61%
30 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2023 Drogheda United Drogheda United 0-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
13.08.2023 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 1-0 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
05.05.2023 Drogheda United Drogheda United 0-1 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
07.04.2023 Derry City Derry City 0-1 HT 0-0 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
19.08.2022 Drogheda United Drogheda United 1-1 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
17.06.2022 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 1-0 Drogheda United Drogheda United İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
2-1
AWAY Drogheda United
0.79 xG 1.28
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
334 Passes 148
72% Pass Accuracy 61%
26 Box Touches 15
41 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Drogheda United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City nicked a narrow win over Drogheda United 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Derry City had 66% of the ball to Drogheda United's 34%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 0.79 to 1.28 — the balance of chances actually favoured Drogheda United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derry City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Derry City and 0.50 for Drogheda United.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Drogheda United?

Derry City 2-1 Drogheda United in the Ireland - Premier League on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Drogheda United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Derry City 60%, draw 24%, Drogheda United 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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