Arsenal U21 4-2 Southampton U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 16 Feb 2024

📅16/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
3.17
Over 2.5
65%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.35
No
42%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
8%
1/X
3%
X/1
4%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.3pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.7pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.6pp
35%
Under 2.5
28%
+6.9pp
65%
Over 2.5
72%
-6.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
70%
-12.1pp
42%
BTTS No
30%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal U21 EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton U21 EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-52% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
27.6 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal U21
4-2
AWAY Southampton U21
0.87 xG 1.02
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
267 Passes 606
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal U21 vs Southampton U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal U21 beat Southampton U21 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arsenal U21 as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal U21 had 33% of the ball to Southampton U21's 67%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.87 to 1.02.

What was the final score of Arsenal U21 vs Southampton U21?

Arsenal U21 4-2 Southampton U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 16/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal U21 vs Southampton U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Arsenal U21 51%, draw 21%, Southampton U21 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
INGPL2-1 More England - Premier League 2 (League 1)
16 Feb 2024
22:00 Aston Villa U21 vs Middlesbrough U21 Analysis →
22:00 Norwich City U21 vs Fulham U21 Analysis →