Avellino 2-1 Crotone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
34%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.68
Over 2.5
52%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.0
6+ Goals
11%
19.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.0 — our 24% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
48%
-8.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
34%
Away Win
25%
+8.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Crotone EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.78/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.31
+27% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Crotone
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2024 Crotone Crotone 0-4 HT 0-1 Avellino Avellino İTC
22.12.2023 Crotone Crotone 0-1 HT 0-1 Avellino Avellino İTC
06.02.2023 Avellino Avellino 3-1 HT 2-0 Crotone Crotone İTC
08.10.2022 Crotone Crotone 2-0 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
26.03.2016 Avellino Avellino 0-0 HT 0-0 Crotone Crotone İTB
09.11.2015 Crotone Crotone 3-1 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
2-1
AWAY Crotone
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Crotone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino edged past Crotone 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Avellino made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Avellino had 51% of the ball to Crotone's 49%, shots finished 12-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avellino had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Avellino and 1.00 for Crotone.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Crotone?

Avellino 2-1 Crotone in the Italy - Serie C on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Crotone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avellino 39%, draw 27%, Crotone 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avellino), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Avellino) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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