SonderjyskE 1-4 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.48
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
53%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.12
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.82
6+ Goals
12%
16.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
8.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.3
1/X
6%
16.65
X/1
7%
9.89
X/2
11%
4.07
X/X
7%
4.89
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
34%
2.14
2/X
9%
14.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.3 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+6.0pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.1pp
52%
Away Win
55%
-2.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.1pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SonderjyskE EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.22/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.81
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +43%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 81%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
14.3 Crosses 24.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SonderjyskE
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.13 xG 1.49
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
266 Passes 385
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.08.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 4-0 HT 2-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
08.05.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-1 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
18.04.2022 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 2-1 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
18.02.2022 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE 2-3 HT 2-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
27.10.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-2 HT 0-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAK
27.09.2021 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 SonderjyskE SonderjyskE DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SonderjyskE
1-4
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.16 xG 3.12
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 2
404 Passes 197
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
13 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH SonderjyskE vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus ran out comfortable winners over SonderjyskE 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, SonderjyskE had 63% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 37%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.16 to 3.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for SonderjyskE and 1.67 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of SonderjyskE vs AGF Aarhus?

SonderjyskE 1-4 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SonderjyskE vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated an AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split SonderjyskE 25%, draw 22%, AGF Aarhus 52%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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