Deportivo La Guaira 1-0 Caracas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.1pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Caracas FC EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +2%
1.22/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.10
-3% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
344 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 78%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
18.3 Crosses 16.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Caracas FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 1.15
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
366 Passes 295
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.07.2024 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 0-0 HT 0-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
02.02.2024 Caracas FC Caracas FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
02.07.2023 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 2-1 HT 2-1 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
14.05.2023 Caracas FC Caracas FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
22.10.2022 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 1-2 HT 0-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
14.08.2022 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 2-0 HT 0-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo La Guaira
1-0
AWAY Caracas FC
0.84 xG 1.04
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
252 Passes 440
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Deportivo La Guaira vs Caracas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo La Guaira edged past Caracas FC 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 34% — and on the day Deportivo La Guaira made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Deportivo La Guaira had 39% of the ball to Caracas FC's 61%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.84 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Deportivo La Guaira and 1.00 for Caracas FC.

What was the final score of Deportivo La Guaira vs Caracas FC?

Deportivo La Guaira 1-0 Caracas FC in the Venezuela - Premier League on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo La Guaira vs Caracas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo La Guaira win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Deportivo La Guaira 35%, draw 31%, Caracas FC 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) ✓ Under 2.5
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