Burnley 2-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 16 Mar 2024

Burnley
2-1 HT 1-0
Brentford
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Burnley vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.2
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.36
1/2
8%
24.45
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
7%
6.45
X/2
12%
4.98
X/X
10%
5.01
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
23%
3.04
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
1.40/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.60
-11% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
20.9 Crosses 13.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8

Burnley vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Brentford
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.50 xG 2.01
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
268 Passes 390
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Brentford Brentford 3-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
12.03.2022 Brentford Brentford 2-0 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
30.10.2021 Burnley Burnley 3-1 HT 3-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
15.01.2016 Brentford Brentford 1-3 HT 0-3 Burnley Burnley İNCL
22.08.2015 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNCL

Burnley 2-1 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
2-1
AWAY Brentford
2.77 xG 1.16
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
366 Passes 185
80% Pass Accuracy 63%
49 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley squeezed past Brentford 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Brentford at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Burnley had 60% of the ball to Brentford's 40%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.77 to 1.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Burnley's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Burnley and 1.40 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Brentford?

Burnley 2-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brentford win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Burnley 33%, draw 24%, Brentford 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brentford) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brentford) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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